Ideas Stock Markets- why investors, authors and readers behave similarly?

Ideas Stock Markets- why investors, authors and readers behave similarly?


Is trading ideas in meetings similar to trading stocks in stock markets?

Can the stock markets be the metaphor for “trading ideas” in-group meetings such as those in businesses and even at family gathering, or discussions on social platforms? Instead of selling and buying stocks, it is selling and buying ideas.

The above two questions clouded my mind over the last few days and surprises emerged in trying to search for answers to resolve them.

To start with- how these questions popped up in my mind?

I consider myself fortunate that most of my posts attract many comments. Analyzing those comments revealed several observations and questions as well. The authors as well as the readers may experience few of these observations and maybe asking the same questions. These include among others:

· Writer of the comment agrees. Is it of Confirmation Bias to what she/he knows? This bias creates another bias that is the Blind-Spot Bias because of falling to the spot of owned confirmation bias.

· I agree with most comment here- is it because of the paradox of Conformity Bias?

· Recent findings suggest- is it because of the Recency Bias in which new information is overly weighted?

· The first comment by an acclaimed writer- is it the Anchoring Bias that is operating because over-reliance on the first comment, notably if it is from an established resource?

· The majority of comments are in agreement with the author- is it because the Bandwagon Effect attractor where the majority likes to settle in? This can be compounded by the Abilene Paradox in which the individuals maybe right, but fake assumptions of others’ suggestions are right even when they are wrong lead the comments’ writer to make the wrong evaluation of a post?

· The comments align with your long-owned beliefs- is this the Conservation Bias that satisfies the writer’s and readers’ egos?

· The majority of comments agree with the writer- and so the new comments tend to follow pattern. Is this because of the Zero-Risk Bias in operation as there is less risk in following the majority cascading to Separation-Risk Bias?

· The last few posts by the author had a streak of positive comments- and so the new post is a good one resulting in the Power-Streak Bias?

· Most comments are in agreement with the author even though they negate the readers’ evaluation. This may trigger the Imposter Paradox and the reader writes a comment that is in agreement with the majority because of self-doubt?

· the sentiments are mostly in agreement (or disagreement) with the author- even though the reader has a different thought than the writer of the post she/he writes an agreeable comment in alignment with the majority- this leads to a mind-heart gap and the Gap Paradox emerges. This issue I explained in my book in Arabic “Taming the Future”. It is when my mind urges me to sign a peace treaty with an enemy, but my heart says no. The fear to write a comment negating the majority even though my mind says they are wrong is applicable to the Comments Paradox.

· The writer of the post exposes the readers to many new topics the  readers are unfamiliar with. They feel they know less than before reading the post. This creates what I describe as the Knowledge Inferiority Paradox and so I wrote an agreeing comment even though inside me I do not.

· a reader writes a comment criticizing the expert author because the reader is seeking fame- the Play-Big Greed for fame is distorting the reality.

· The greed makes successful traders drunk by their success- the “Success Syndrome” starts to be progressively more dominant as the greed for more blinds those investors to their forthcoming disappointments and nasty surprises. Authors are subject to exposure by the same paradox.

· The success syndrome is then coupled with the emerging syndrome- more successes invites the Dunning-Kruger effect to take the lead. The less smart investors believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Their success falls apart. Likewise, the less smart readers may jump on the wagon as acclaimed experts.

There are always over-valued and under-valued stocks. Likewise, there shall be always over-valued and under-valued authors, readers, posts and comments. These shall continue as long there are biases and paradoxes.

Analogy with the Stock Markets

Reviewing the previous paradoxes and biases will point out that fear is a common denominator among them. Fear of risk, fear of labeling, fear of not conforming, fear of being accused as ignorant, fear of deviation and fear of isolation and other fears dictate on the reader what to say in her/his comment and the authors what to write. The other factor, which is greed, leads to the distortion of the value of comments and may spoil the authors as well.

Fear and greed are the two major factors that may lead to the misleading posts and/or comments. These two factors operate in meetings and in the stock markets. In meeting and including virtual meetings, these two factors operate as well. The social platform is the meeting room for readers to exchange the stocks of ideas.

The question that follows is if the wave’s say of comments would follow the pattern of the waves that we observe in the stock markets. Let us examine the feelings that dominate the stock markets to visualize the correlation first.

Meeting with self is unlike meeting in groups. The group influences the thinking and emotions of the individual and the individual in turn affects the thinking and emotions of the group. These interactions lead to the emergence of the paradoxes and biases discussed earlier. Investors meet in the exchange hall of the stock markets and they meet in a room or virtually on a social platform.

The Paradoxes of the Stock Markets is analogous to the Ideas Stock Markets. In both markets, people trade either stocks or “ideas stocks”.


The journey of emotions affects our behaviors. This can be best to watch visually the wave of emotions in the stock markets worldwide. The emotions start with the intensification of the positive emotions until disappointment is encountered and expectations fall below their expectation lines. This leads to the generation of negative emotions intensifying until they carry the investor to a rock-bottom state and the investor’s positive emotions become the prey for negative emotions. When a ray of hope appears the re-birth of positive emotions start and a new wave of positive emotions build up.

The predator negative emotions feed on the prey positive emotions. This reminds me of the prey-predator relationship in which the predators eat up the preys until no or enough preys are available and the predators suffer from hunger. It is an indirect way of committing suicide.


We fall preys to our emotions and our behavior follows a wavy path. These waves can become turbulent and we need to surf their turbulence as if great surfers surf the turbulent waters.

Behind the scenes, emerge the paradoxes and biases. These factors do not work in isolation and affect each other by feedback. No wonder the stock markets have such complexity making the precise prediction of their movements and trends practically impossible.

Do authors and comments’ writer pass through the same wave structure? My answer is yes.

Conclusions:

· We need to reconsider the emotions affecting group thinking. There is diversity of hidden emotional factors that interact making the understanding of their outcome far more challenging than what appears on the surface.

· Changing the meeting place such as physical rooms, exchange rooms or virtual platforms affects the rate of changes. We shall observe the same wave patterns with their fractal and complex structures. Humans with the complexity of each person interacting with others count.

· It requires huge effort to think and interact with rationality in these meeting places.

· The few predators (the profit-making investors) that shall be happy to break the prey and cut them into pieces. This way they may enjoy having more “mouthfuls”.

· Worse is when investors, writers and comment writers become the prey and the preys at the same time. They all fall preys to their greediness for more success (readership for authors) and develop all or few of the complexities highlighted earlier in this post. They become like a serpentine biting their own successes and failures. This adds to the complexity of these markets (including Idea Markets) than what is experienced in simple prey-predator complexity.

· The sentiments that prevail in stock markets are indifferent from the sentiments of authors and readers and these sentiments shape up the mode of interactions between authors and readers.


· How do I try to buffer my complex biases and paradoxes by first reading the post and then comment before I read other comments? At least, I am not influenced by any other comment or the trend of the majority of comments. I admit my failure to do so sometimes.

I here confess that I experienced many of these paradoxes and biases. The best I could do is not to go to the extreme.

I have no complaint behind writing this post. Its publication coincides with the most complimentary comments I received over the years. I feel I am bloated with them. Therefore, the motive for writing this post is my search for answering the questions that are outlined in this post.



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Fay Vietmeier Jun 6, 2020 · #108

@Edward Lewellen

Thank you Edward for expanding ... I appreciate you going on a roll

“the unconscious mind teaching the conscious mind.”
God’s creation is GLORIOUS ... human beings “fearfully & wonderfully made”

I did not know this: "The conscious mind thinks at 40 bits of information per second. The unconscious mind thinks (at a minimum) at 40,000,000 bits of information per second, some believe it runs at 10 Petabytes per second. Add to this that the human mind records EVERYTHING we experience, even if we are consciously unaware of them."

How can this be measured?

I am reading Eben Alexander’s Map of Heaven ... something he said made me think our SPIRIT has a mind ... just as (we are told) our heart has a mind ...
There is SO MUCH we simply do not know ... do not understand
So much happening at an unconscious level that we do not tap into ... or argue against
Hence, it remains ASLEEP

2)
Fascinating what you shared about Milton Erickson ...
Reminded me of Margaret Atwood’s novel “Alias Grace” ... as a teen she was accused of murder and sent to an asylum ... then prison
Hypnosis was used in an attempt to free her after decades in prison
The book was made into a Canadian miniseries (on Netflix)
It was a fascinating read

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#104 Dear @Edward Lewellen

My friend- your comment is challenging.

I love what you said ""The only true memories are the ones we haven't remembered". In emulation of the "observer effect". I would name this as the "memory effect".

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John Rylance Jun 4, 2020 · #106

#104 Thank you for explaining.

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#104 Just to highlight the name of @John Rylance to your worthy comment dear @Edward Lewellen

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Edward Lewellen Jun 4, 2020 · #104

#103 @John Rylance, there's a key point I'd like to bring to your attention. There is a tremendous difference between what we remember in a waking state versus hypnosis. In recent years, neuroscientists have discovered that every time we recall a memory, we dilute and pollute it. in fact, the phrase I've seen used by neuroscientists is, "The only true memories are the ones we haven't remembered".

Our mind associates similar people, things, and events together. Two people can go to the same event and remember it differently, Sometimes so much so that you would think they were at two different events. Other times, there may be just nuances that are different. For example, one may say, "They had beautiful blue glasses for the wine" and the other person may say, "The wine glasses were white, and I know that for a fact!"

The unconscious mind always remembers accurately, in great detail, and never lies. Here's an example that still makes my socks roll up and down when I think about it:
Milton Erickson, considered to be the Father of Modern Hypnosis, was called in to help a Police Department solve a crime. The intruder had come from behind and put his hands across his victim's eyes so she never saw him. The police had no clues to follow. Dr. Erickson hypnotized the victim and had her draw the fingerprints of the intruder. The description was so accurate that the police were able to find a fingerprint match and arrest the intruder! The way the police obtained the fingerprints wasn't admissible in court, but the matching finger prints were!

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John Rylance Jun 4, 2020 · #103

#101 Thank you for your reply. It appears to me that you are suggesting that hypnosis is a means of releasing "stored thinking" i e a means of confirming what we thought happened. Memory being our main source of knowledge.

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