INTERNATIONAL TRADE GROWING SLIGHTLY AFTER 2 YEARS OF DECLINE by Bill Stankiewicz

Imports

Combined imports rose by 2.0%, after eight consecutive quarterly falls. All G20 economies recorded growth in imports in the second quarter of 2016, except Argentina, France, India, Indonesia, and Mexico, who all registered slight falls. Russia's imports fell by 5.0%.

China recorded the highest growth in imports at 6.6% growth in the second quarter, but levels remain lower than in 2014.

Exports

Combined exports in the G20 rose by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2016, after falling for the previous seven quarters. Maintaining the Momentum of World Economic Recovery is a key theme at this year's G20 summit.

World leaders will gather this weekend in Hangzhou, a city of about 6 million people southwest of Shanghai. It is the first time that China has hosted the event, now in its 11th year.  The G20 plays a significant role in shaping the fortunes of the world economy and is the premier forum for international economic cooperation. The group leads 84% of the world economy, 79% of world trade and 65% of the world population.

New Trends

Digital innovation will continue to provide opportunities for businesses and individuals. New technologies create fresh products and business models that can be adapted for different markets, undermining the importance of location. Increasingly interconnected economies will bring rapid change and transmission of ideas around the world.

“There will be 5+ billion people online by the end of this decade, and this growth is coming from the developing world. This is a fundamental change. The internet and the free movement of data across borders underpins growth in international trade and investment.  Smart data innovation has the potential to drive tremendous efficiencies and optimize every cycle-time in our supply chains.

Reverse innovation is a growing phenomenon in which companies initially develop products and services for emerging markets rather than the developed world. Products can then be customized as they are sold into different markets, representing a shift from mass production to mass customization. Customization will benefit from analyzing growing volumes of customer data and using sophisticated marketing techniques to understand and influence customer requirements. An increasing ability to use data to track the world today, and forecast the future, will enable companies to build intelligent systems that track information and consumer demand. The development of 3D printing will contribute to innovation in the supply chain, with many local factories producing goods on demand through the technology. Digital disruption and tightly connected global networks provide an opportunity for small and mid-sized companies to level the competitive playing field against larger firms. New technologies such as 3D printing will enable smaller players to deliver products anywhere in the world.

By 2050, trade will be boosted by improvements in logistics. The cost of shipping will fall, driven by a combination of larger vessels and the expansion of shipping lanes. New airports, with increased energy efficiency and further streamlining of border control processes, will speed up trade and reduce air freight costs too. In addition, continued advances in transport technology and infrastructure will increase capacity, opening up new trade routes.

At a recent meeting Monday, GPA reported they moved 30.8 million tons of cargo and 3.6 million twenty-foot equivalent container units in Fiscal Year 2016. It is the second straight year that TEU volumes topped 3.6 million. Despite a decrease of 1.3 percent in containers for FY16, combined annual TEU growth for FY15-16 reached 15.4 percent. “Overall, FY16 container volumes exceeded expectations due to inflated market share associated with last year’s West Coast cargo diversions,” GPA Rep stated. “When our new customers experienced the seamless connection between Georgia’s ports, rail and roads, they decided to grow their business here. This coming year we will be focused on increasing our capacity, expanding our reach into new markets and providing superior supply chain solutions for our customers.”  GPA estimates that 24 percent of the approximately 320,000 TEUs diverted to the Port of Savannah over Fiscal Year 2015, or more than 75,000 TEUs, was retained by the Authority. “Georgia’s deep-water ports are a powerful magnet for new business,” stated by GPA representatives. “Thousands of manufacturing and logistics companies are already capitalizing on the competitive advantages offered by the ports of Savannah and Brunswick. As our retention of the diverted cargo shows, potential customers continue to choose Georgia when they learn of the savings in time and money that we provide.” The Authority also approved $4.3 million to upgrade electrical power for GPA’s growing fleet of neo-Panamax Ship to Shore (STS) cranes. By the end of 2017, eight additional STS cranes will be added, bringing the total number of cranes to 30, more than any terminal in the U.S.

Why Should You Consider Savannah? Our Service Breakdown

Asia/Panama Services

• Savannah has 11,   NYC has 12
• Savannah has 6 first port of calls (NYC=5, CHS=1, HOU=1, MIA=1, )
• With the exception of the APX & NUE - Savannah has the faster inbound transits versus the rest of the ports in the S. Atlantic range
• Only unique services CHS has vs Savannah is EVER's NUE and CMAs PEX service - PEX is more of an export call - slow inbound transit via the Gulf Suez
• SAV is the only EC port to have 11/11 services - not bad for shallow river port
• Savannah is the only port other than NYC to have a first port of call -TP7
• MECL1 is the only Suez service out of the 11 that calls CHS before SAV in S ATL range
• SAV is well positioned to be the primary discharge port for SUEZ and Intermodal cargo in South ATL due to rotations and rail routings/infrastructure.
• SAV offers 3 last Port of call - counters typical argument for shallow SAV and top off concept for other ports to a degree-Europe
• Total 14 services
• SAV offers 5 service versus CHS -8 - Not bad for SAV considering CHS history as a European base port
• MSC EQ is fist of call inbound, RTW has a unique port range in Europe, PAX service is unique for S ATL range and RTW
• Latin America
• Only MIA has more services MIA=6, SAV, CHS,NOR,NYC=5
• SAV services focused more on Exports
• MSC tranships N/B cargo via Freeport offering competitive transits to SAV
• Sell the SAE - It is a key differentiator for SAV, Perishables & GarmentsMediterranean
• SAV has 4 out of the 6 services - PEV =2, CHS=1
• PEV has 2 unique services vs SAV
• SAV has the best inbound transits from MED for S ATL range with obvious exception of PEV unique services
• Oceania -per RR's comments
• 1 of 2 services call USEC
• Savannah is first port in from Australia/New Zealand with transit times as much= as 11 days better (from Chalmers NZ) than Charleston, with Sydney 8 days better than Charleston.
• Intermodal gateway for imports into South and Midwest, OH valley area.
• Exports to Cartagena are a day faster with the RTW. While there is no Cartagena Northbound (Imports) call it still has a Manzanillo to Savannah that will rival the OC1 8 days transit from Cartagena.
• Adds a weekly call inbound and outbound to Europe with very competitive transit times.
• Export transit are on par with OC1 - but SAV has the inland cost advantage for many exporters.

 Best regards,

Bill Stankiewicz

Regional Vice President

A&S Kinard

BStankiewicz@askinard.com

www.askinard.com

www.twitter.com/billstankiewicz

https://www.linkedin.com/in/billstankiewicz2006

 

Some information here from by Sofia Lotto Persio, & GPA Press releases. Contact Bill Stankiewicz for additional information at 1.404.750.3200 or email: bstankiewicz@askinard.com