Flávio Rodrigues Vieira in Universe, Space & Beyond, Fractals Forever, Lifestyle Analista de negócios / Business Analyst • Mainland 3 Oct 14, 2016 · 4 min read · +800



In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photographic paper sold in the world. In the course of a few years, her business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen to a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people do not see it coming. You could imagine in 1998 that three years later you would never record pictures on paper film?

However, digital cameras have been invented in 1975. The first had only 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's Law. As with all exponential technologies, they were disappointing for a long time, until they become vastly superior and dominant in a few years. The same will happen now with artificial intelligence, health, self-employed and electric vehicles, with education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Welcome to the fourth industrial revolution!

The software will destroy most atividadestradicionais the next 5-10 years.

The UBER is just a software tool, they do not own cars and are now the world's biggest taxi company. AIRBNB is the largest hotel company in the world, although they are not owners.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers are becoming exponentially better understanding in the world. This year, a computer beat the best player in the world GO 10 years ahead of schedule. In the United States, young lawyers can no longer jobs.

With WATSON, IBM, V. can get legal advice (for now on issues more or less basic) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if V is studying law, STOP immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, but experts remain.

The WATSON is already helping nurses to diagnose cancer, four times more accurately than human nurses.

autonomous vehicles: in 2018 the first vehicles appear automatically directed to the public. Around 2020, the entire automotive industry will begin to be demolished. You want to not own a car. Our children will never require a driver's license or will own a car.

This will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars this. We can transform parking areas in parks. About 1.2 million people die each year in traffic accidents worldwide. We now have an accident every 100,000 kilometers, but with self-driven vehicles this fall to an accident every 10,000,000 km. This will save more than one million lives each year.

Most car companies may go bankrupt. traditional car companies adopt evolutionary tactics and build better cars, while technology companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will adopt revolutionary tactics and build a computer on wheels. I talked to a lot of Volkswagen and Audi engineers: they are completely terrified of TESLA.

Companies insurers will have huge problems because without accidents, the insurance will become 100 times cheaper. The model of their car insurance business will disappear.

The real estate business will change. Because they can work while moving, people will move further away to live in a nicer neighborhood.

Electric cars will become dominant by 2020. The cities will be less noisy because all the cars will run electrically. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: solar energy has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but only now V. can feel the impact. Last year, more were mounted solar installations fossils. The price of solar power will fall so that all coal mining activities cease around 2025.

With cheap electricity will have abundant and cheap water. Desalination now consumes only 2 kilowatts / hour per cubic meter. We have no shortage of water in most places, we only lack of drinking water. Imagine what would be possible if each has as much clean water as you want, almost without cost.

Health: The price of the Tricorder X will be announced this year. We will have companies that will build a medical device (called Tricorder in Star Trek) that works with your phone, making scanning your retina, tests his blood sample and analyzes your breath (breath). He then analyzed 54 biomarkers that identify almost any disease. It will be cheaper, so that in a few years every person on this planet will have access to world-class medical virtually free.

3D printing: the price of the cheapest 3D printer has dropped from $ 18,000 to $ 400 in 10 years. This same interval became 100 times faster. All major shoes factories began to print 3D shoes. spare parts for airplanes are already 3D printed at remote airports.

The Space Station now has a 3D printer that eliminates the need to have a lot of spare parts as was previously required. Later this year, the new smartphone will be able to scan in 3D. You can then scan your foot and print perfect shoes in your home. In China, already printed in 3D all a complete building of 6 floors offices. There 2027, 10% of everything that is produced will be printed in 3D.

Business opportunities: If V. think of a niche in which would like to enter, ask yourself: "Will we have THAT IN THE FUTURE?" and if the answer is YES, as you can make it happen sooner? If you do not work with your phone, FORGET the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to fail in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is unclear whether there will be enough new jobs on time so exiguous.

Agriculture: there will be a $ 100.00 robot farmer in the future. Farmers 3rd world may become managers of their land instead of working on them every day. The aeroponics require much less water. The first calf produced "in vitro" is now available and will become cheaper than natural calf cow around 2018.

Currently, about 30% of all cultivable surfaces are occupied by cows. Imagine if such spaces leave to be used this way. There are many current initiatives to bring insect protein soon to the market. They provide more protein than meat. It should be labeled SOURCE PROTEIN ALTERNATIVE. (Because many people still reject ideas of eating insects).

There is an application called "Moodies" (moods) that is already able to tell what mood V. is. By 2020 there will be applications that can tell if V is lying by their facial expressions. Imagine a political debate where they are showing when people are telling the truth and when they are not.

Bitcoin (virtual money) can become dominant this year and may even become standard reserve currency.

Q Is it possible?

I ask you?

Currency is more than a means of payment. See the problem of the euro, which runs in countries as different as Germany and Greece.

Longevity: Currently, life expectancy increases about 3 months a year. Four years ago, the life expectancy used to be 79 and now is 80 years. The increase itself is also increasing and around 2036 there will be an increase of more than a year by year. So we can all live long, long lives, possibly well over 100 years.

Education: the cheapest smartphones are already costing $ 10.00 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will have a smartphone. This means that each has the same access to world class education. Each child can use the Khan Academy for everything a child learns in school in countries of First World.

@Dean Owen you made me a very difficult question, the world will change dramatically, but I believe in guiding not only my son, but the children who came, not to lose their humanity, I will teach values ​​I learned from my parents and grandparents, the respect and help those in need, I can not force him to follow in my footsteps, to have a family of cops, learned early the value of work and my family would very much that I was also a police officer, I believe that to continue the work done for them within the department, just want him to find his place in the world, which does not stagnate and never give up, I believe that these teachings are the best, than teach him to speak 5 languages ​​and learn about quantum technologies because at the end all, all he needs to know is to be strong and persistent.

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Dean Owen 6 d ago · #3

An impressive and well researched piece! Given the above in mind, what vocation would you steer your children toward?

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Flávio Rodrigues Vieira Oct 14, 2016 · #2

#1 thanks for the comment my young, crazy would it not believe that many existing jobs will be extinguished in fact are already dying out, crazy would be if he could not make that possible, the Bebee not escape it, imagine all the signings being made through the Bebee, then there would be no more outsourced hiring, another point is that the world's billionaires always arise after a change of break, bringing innovation, could say for hours the background, the future I imagine for organizations, but I believe it will hit majority.

debasish majumder Oct 14, 2016 · #1

nice insight! Flavio Rodrigues Vieira. but why you are only crazy to anticipate the changes going to emerge only in the corporate world. there are changes and some unprecedented development going to emerge, which even five years back no body could perceive. hold your breathe gentleman.

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