Roberto A. Foglietta en Coaching, Motivation, Economists and Finance ◽Freelance Consultant • ◾ 10/11/2017 · 1 min de lectura · +200

Black Swan is not as rare as we might think...

Black Swan is not as rare as we might think...

Published on November 10, 2017 on beBee 

Once upon a time

The word "monster" cames from latin (It. mostro, Lat. monstrum ‘segno divino, prodigio’, dal tema di monēre ‘avvisare, ammonire'.) which means exceptional and/or advisor from above.

The negative declination cames later when it has related with misfortune signs and with negative exceptions. However, in the original form it had not a specific negative declination like the word exceptional.

The black swan is the new monster

The same happens for the term "black swan", is a rare event and overlooked one for which the common declination is related to a great disaster. Also in this case our fear for loss wins in giving the term the negative connotation rather than a neutral one.

Where the problem lies

Every solution is lying in the essence of what we call problem. Once we understood the inner essence of the problem, the solution cames straight from it.

Accepting the solution could be an issue because it would conflict with our interests (usually our fear of an immediate loss toward an uncertain long run advantage) or our belief (admitting that we were wrong or we did not understood a key point).

To change, is the hard part of

Sometimes, it requires much more effort to accept and adopt a solution rather than finding it. Such effort is not related to the solution itself but the resistance against the change it brings.

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(C) 2017, Roberto A. Foglietta, licensed under Creative Common Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike v4.0 International Terms (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0).

Roberto A. Foglietta 12/1/2018 · #4


jim hang 20/11/2017 · #3

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Roberto A. Foglietta 10/11/2017 · #2

#1 You right Zacharias, the danger inherently embedded into a rare event is that nobody can see the implications before they got irreversible obvious. Everything was in place but being obvious is completely another matter...

+2 +2

I was under the impression that a black swan is neutral. At least that's what I got from studying N. Taleb's book, where the concept was first introduced. However, I understand why many people view black swans as negative. Perhaps, I find that they can be useful, in many cases, depending on where you stand. For example, blockchain technology (note that the letter b is not capitalized in this case), is sometimes seen as a black swan. It is not negative necessarily though, unless you are ignoring it altogether. Same goes with many other technologies that are considered black swans.

+2 +2